Turbulence, though a well-understood phenomenon in aviation, remains within safety tolerances from an insurance and risk management perspective, according to insights from Willis Towers Watson (WTW).
While turbulence-related claims are typically minor, recent severe incidents have reignited concerns. Notably, a fatal heart attack potentially triggered by extreme turbulence resulted in over 20 passengers and crew members needing intensive care. Another incident shortly after injured six passengers and six crew members.
In a significant May event, Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 from London Heathrow to Singapore diverted to Bangkok after encountering extreme turbulence over the Irrawaddy Basin. This incident resulted in one confirmed death and at least 30 injuries.
The exact causes of these recent turbulence incidents remain undetermined beyond being described as “sudden and extreme.” Preliminary reports indicate that developing convective activity created unstable flight conditions.
Turbulence manifests in three primary forms: mechanical, convective, and clear-air turbulence (CAT). Mechanical turbulence, caused by obstructions like mountains or large structures, occurs at low altitudes and is manageable as pilots can navigate around it. Convective turbulence arises from vertical air currents due to ground temperature changes, commonly occurring on sunny days and near jet streams or tropical convection areas. CAT, which happens in clear skies at high altitudes without visual cues, poses a significant challenge as it is undetectable by conventional radar.
Pilots depend on weather forecasts and real-time updates but cannot always predict CAT. However, advancements in technology, such as LiDAR, which uses laser beams to detect air transitions, are helping to mitigate CAT challenges. NASA and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) are also developing tools to enhance turbulence prediction and understanding.
Climate change is believed to be increasing the frequency and severity of turbulence. Warming temperatures alter wind speeds, particularly in the jet stream, leading to more turbulence. Research indicates that severe CAT in the North Atlantic has risen by 55% since 1979, and jet stream winds could increase by 2% per degree Celsius of warming.
For the aviation industry, increased turbulence could influence route selection and fuel consumption, potentially leading to a rise in insurance claims. Despite these concerns, modern aircraft are designed to withstand turbulence, and flight crews are thoroughly trained to manage it.
Overall, while turbulence remains a manageable risk within the aviation industry, ongoing advancements in technology and research are crucial to further enhancing flight safety.
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