According to business analytics company S&P Global, autonomous or self-driving cars are unlikely to be widely available for general use by 2035. While the company believes that a world of autonomous vehicles will eventually exist, they see little prospect of consumers being able to buy a car that can drive itself without a driver ready to take control.
Despite Google’s successful testing of a self-driving car in 2015, the development of autonomous vehicles has been slow. S&P Global attributes this to serious malfunctions in the technology, which have hindered mass production similar to that of the Model T or Volkswagen. The main challenge lies in developing systems that can operate effectively in the complex and unpredictable world of interactions with human drivers.
According to S&P Global analysts, the cost of the necessary sensors, computer systems, chips, and semiconductors remains high. This implies that most personal vehicle buyers will not be willing to pay for self-driving functionality, although it may be more feasible for taxi and ride-sharing services to adopt autonomous vehicles.
In the near term, S&P Global believes that “robo-taxis” will be the most feasible form of autonomous transportation. These vehicles could operate in well-mapped areas where extensive testing has already taken place, such as large US cities. Additionally, by the mid-2030s, there may be more geofenced robo-taxis operated by fleets in specific areas, as well as hands-off systems with various safety precautions in personal vehicles that still require some form of driver engagement.
In conclusion, while a world of autonomous vehicles may be on the horizon, it is unlikely to become widespread by 2035. The challenges of developing reliable and safe autonomous systems, coupled with the high costs involved, mean that autonomous cars will primarily be limited to specific use cases and scenarios.
